The Secrets of Economic Indicators: Hidden Clues to Future Economic Trends and Investment Opportunities, 2nd Edition

The Secrets of Economic Indicators: Hidden Clues to Future Economic Trends and Investment Opportunities, 2nd Edition Review

I purchased this some time ago when I was a banker and have since lent it to several people. I have lent too many books to count, but this is the only book that has had the exact same reaction... Amazing! Some found it so useful they returned it quickly and picked one up themselves.

The key to this book is its simplicity and organization. It makes for both an explanatory book of dozens of indicators AND as a quick reference. I eventually used it as a financial advisor, filling in my calendar with each release of info. I used this book a few mornings each week to anticipate what would happen in the market after the release date for each indicator. Eventually I began compiling two email lists (weekly and every day an indicator was released) to send out emails to prospective clients and clients that watched the market. I would summarize the indicators being released and then what to expect from the results that morning or past week. It was the most successful marketing method I have ever come up with.

This book will not only make you seem like an expert, but allow you to understand and anticipate short-term market fluctuations. Don't take my word for it, look at all these reviews!

The Secrets of Economic Indicators: Hidden Clues to Future Economic Trends and Investment Opportunities, 2nd Edition Feature

• ISBN13: 9780132447294
• Condition: New
• Notes: BUY WITH CONFIDENCE, Over one million books sold! 98% Positive feedback. Compare our books, prices and service to the competition. 100% Satisfaction Guaranteed

The Secrets of Economic Indicators: Hidden Clues to Future Economic Trends and Investment Opportunities, 2nd Edition Overview

“This is the real deal. Baumohl miraculously breathes life into economic indicators and statistics.”

–The Wall Street Journal

 

“This is the most up-to-date guide to economic indicators and their importance to financial markets in print. The coverage of less-reported indicators, especially those from nongovernment sources, is hard to find elsewhere. The inclusion of the actual published tables helps the newer student of the markets find the data in the public release. For anyone trying to follow the economic data, this should be next to your computer so that you can understand and find the data on the Internet.”

–David Wyss, Chief Economist, Standard and Poor’s

 

“I find Baumohl’s writing fascinating. In addition to the famous indicators, he includes many that I hadn’t heard of. I really appreciate that he tells you exactly where to find each indicator on the Web. Just about anyone who’s serious about understanding which way the economy is headed will want to read this book. It could be a classic.”

–Harry Domash, Columnist for MSN Money and Publisher, Winning Investing Newsletter

 

“Bernie Baumohl has accomplished something of real value in The Secrets of Economic Indicators. He has successfully demystified the world of financial and economic news that bombards us in our daily lives. Both professional investors and casual observers of the world of finance and economics will be grateful for what he has done. The constant stream of heretofore bewildering news from the world of business and finance can now be easily understood. Every businessperson or investor should keep a copy of Baumohl’s book close at hand as he or she catches up on the business, stock market, and economic events of the day. It is great, at long last, to have someone who has eliminated what may have been so perplexing to so many and to have done so with such remarkable clarity.”

–Hugh Johnson, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer of Johnson Illington Advisors

 

“Bernie Baumohl has written a must-read educational and reference book that every individual investor will find indispensable for watching, monitoring, and interpreting the markets. The daily flow of high frequency economic indicators is the stuff that makes financial markets move and that can signal the big trends that make or break investor portfolios. Most important, Bernie’s long experience in reporting economics for Time Magazine helps make the ‘dismal science’ lively and interesting.”

–Allen Sinai, President and Chief Global Economist, Decision Economics, Inc.

 

“Baumohl has a gift for taking a complicated subject and allowing it to read like a fast-moving novel. My confidence in reading and understanding economic indicators as portrayed in this book made me realize the possibilities this information holds for improving my personal net worth as well as navigating my business toward higher profits. I recommend this book if you care about your future finances.”

–Morris E. Lasky, CEO, Lodging Unlimited, Inc.; Manager and consultant for billion in hotel assets; Chairman, Lodging Conference; Chairman, International Hotel Conference

 

“I think this is an excellent book. It’s well written, accessible to a variety of readers, deals with an interesting and important subject, and covers the topic well. It deserves to get a lot of notice and use.”

–D. Quinn Mills, Alfred J. Weatherhead, Jr., Professor of Business Administration, Harvard Business School

 

“Economic statistics, employment data, Federal Reserve surveys. Think they are boring? Think again! They can drive markets into a frenzy, causing billions of dollars to be made or lost in an instant. Bernie Baumohl brilliantly, clearly, and, yes, entertainingly describes what every investor and business manager should know about economic indicators: which ones move markets, how to interpret them, and how to use them to spot and capitalize on future economic trends. The Secrets of Economic Indicators is an extraordinary and insightful work–an enormously important contribution to the body of financial literature. Read it and then keep it on your desk. Consult it the next time you are deluged with a flurry of economic statistics. Your understanding certainly will be enhanced, and your portfolio will likely be as well.”

–Robert Hormats, Vice Chairman, Goldman Sachs (International)

 

“If you want to make money investing, this is an essential trend-tracking tool that will help get you to the bank. This book is the real deal. Bernard Baumohl miraculously breathes life into deadly economic indicators and boring statistics . . . he knows what he’s talking about, and his expertise proves it.”

–Gerald Celente, Director, The Trends Research Institute

 

COMPLETELY UPDATED! THE PLAIN-ENGLISH, UP-TO-THE-MINUTE GUIDE

TO ECONOMIC INDICATORS: WHAT THEY MEAN, AND HOW TO USE THEM!

 

Every day, investments bounce wildly in response to new economic indicators: statistics that provide crucial clues about the future of the economy and the markets. Now, you can use these indicators to make smarter investment decisions, just like the professionals. You don’t need an economics degree, or a CPA–just The Secrets of Economic Indicators, Second Edition!

 

Using up-to-the-minute examples and real-world stories, former TIME Magazine senior economics reporter Bernard Baumohl illuminates every U.S. and foreign indicator that matters right now. You’ll learn where to find them, what their track records are, how to interpret them, and how to use that information to make better decisions.

 

Baumohl has thoroughly updated this best-seller with new data, new examples, new indicators, and revised analyses–including a new assessment of the value of yield curves in predicting business cycles. Thousands of investors and business planners swore by the First Edition: these updates make it even more valuable.

 

• New! Today’s 10 most crucial leading indicators

Better ways to predict economic turning points in time to profit

• Get ahead of the curve with the latest U.S. indicators

New insights into U.S. employment, monetary policy, inflation, capital flows, and more

• Emerging foreign indicators you need to track

From China to India, Europe to Brazil...and beyond

• Making sense of indicators in conflict

What to do when the numbers disagree

• Finding the data

Free Web resources for the latest economic data

• Which economic indicators really matter right now?

• What do they mean for stocks, bonds, interest rates, currencies...your portfolio?

• How can you use them to make faster, smarter investment decisions?

• Simple, clear, non-technical, friendly, usable...the only book of its kind!

• By Bernard Baumohl, renowned economic analyst and former award-winning TIME Magazine financial journalist

 

New edition, with extensive new coverage:

• Many new U.S. and global indicators, from new employment reports to box office receipts

• New examples and up-to-the-minute data

• Updated analyses of yield curves and other key metrics

• More international coverage

• New rankings of leading economic indicators, and much more

 

About the Author xiii

What’s New in the Second Edition? xv

Preface xvii

Acknowledgments xxiii

 

Chapter 1        The Lock-Up 1

Chapter 2        A Beginner’s Guide: Understanding the Lingo 17

Chapter 3        The Most Influential U.S. Economic Indicators 25

Chapter 4        International Economic Indicators: Why Are They So Important? 325

Chapter 5        Best Web Sites for U.S. Economic Indicators 373

Chapter 6        Best Web Sit...

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Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures Still Threaten the World Economy

Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures Still Threaten the World Economy Review

Several books have been published in the last couple of years in the wake of the global financial crisis of 2008. While the crisis originated in the United States of America, it soon spread across continents thanks to the close inter linkages of economic and financial globalization.

Raghuram Rajan analyses the situation from a very different perspective, never attempted in any of the recent books on the topic. There is no single explanation to the crisis or a single silver bullet to prevent one in the future. This is because, just as in geology, there are several "fault lines" deep below the earth's visible surface, where the collision of tectonic plates causes severe jolts on the surface, there exist such fault lines in the global economy, argues the author.

First there is an excellent analysis of the American economy. Recessions and recoveries are a part of the economic cycles. However one needs to distinguish recoveries in output, versus the recovery in lost jobs. What seems to be happening in the recent decades is that recovery in lost jobs is taking substantially larger time spans than recovery in output. This means, there is a fundamental change in the structure of the economy as it recovers, rendering a portion of the earlier labor pool redundant. The economy needs skills backed by higher education, and those who are employed, contribute to the recovery due to higher productivity. Several jobs have disappeared as technology and innovation have changed the complexion of employment.

No wonder then that there is rising disparities in income with every economic cycle and higher levels of unemployment. The people at the bottom quartile are left jobless and poorer. Politicians come into picture at this stage. In the recent crisis, with no other option left, the political policy makers pushed for affordable housing for the poor. This policy directive soon translated into the housing bubble that we all know was at the root of the recent crisis. The interesting aspect of the book is that the author argues convincingly that it is unfair to blame only the banking system for the credit and asset bubbles. This was only a rational response from a sophisticated banking system to maximize their share of gains in the opportunity provided by the political mandate. Debt became so easy that "even a dog could get a loan".

Global financial system being closely linked, thanks to the electronic speeds of banking and innovative "products", what started as securitized debt soon was nothing but snake oil freely flowing into the coffers of unsuspecting investors across the globe. Bankers were looking for the edge and acting on incentives to maximize their "Alpha" by taking on more "Tail risk".

This is one excellent example of a dangerous financial fault line that occurs when politically motivated stimulus comes into contact with a sophisticated financial sector.

The second set of fault lines emanate from export oriented economies (typically the late developers) that are fueling the spending spree of the highly indebted developed countries. Countries like China, South Korea and Taiwan are now government directed, producer biased export oriented economies with "managed capitalism" that encourages exports and distorts global trade balances. Most of these countries had bitter experiences when short term foreign funds were withdrawn causing the Asian crisis in the late 1990's. The strategy now is do build up substantial foreign exchange reserves.

In the case of China, the thrust on export orientation has led to a weak renminbi policy. The Chinese central bank PBOC buys dollars of exporters and gives them renminbi to prevent it from appreciating. To avoid inflation, it issues its own debt to "sterilize" the excess renminbi. Holding a huge dollar reserve, it looks to invest in the United States where interest rates are low. This forces low interest rates on domestic renminbi, pushing up asset prices. The fault lines have now successfully traversed oceans and continents.

The final set of fault lines analyzed is those that develop when different types of financial systems come into contact to finance the global trade imbalances.

While countries like the United States and the United Kingdom have arms-length financial systems with high levels of transparency, the rest of the world has less transparent relationship based banking. These systems not only work on different principles, but also have different forms of government interventions, that inherently have a tendency to distort each other's functioning when they come into close contact, explains the author.

This book is a comprehensive, in-depth, impartial and a rigorous study of the current global economy and financial systems. In addition to the analysis, there are also a set of recommendations to avoid global financial disasters in future. While these recommendations are based on sound principles, their implementation will pose a huge challenge since there is no single global regulator who has the authority to regulate global financial markets. Independent countries will continue following policies that benefit them, even at the cost of hampering long term global stability and growth.

I rate this book as one amongst the best in the first decade of the twenty-first century. It can make a huge difference, if policy makers pay attention to the fault lines before we are jolted by a more severe and painful global economic quake.

Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures Still Threaten the World Economy Feature

• ISBN13: 9780691146836
• Condition: New
• Notes: BUY WITH CONFIDENCE, Over one million books sold! 98% Positive feedback. Compare our books, prices and service to the competition. 100% Satisfaction Guaranteed

Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures Still Threaten the World Economy Overview

Raghuram Rajan was one of the few economists who warned of the global financial crisis before it hit. Now, as the world struggles to recover, it's tempting to blame what happened on just a few greedy bankers who took irrational risks and left the rest of us to foot the bill. In Fault Lines, Rajan argues that serious flaws in the economy are also to blame, and warns that a potentially more devastating crisis awaits us if they aren't fixed.

Rajan shows how the individual choices that collectively brought about the economic meltdown--made by bankers, government officials, and ordinary homeowners--were rational responses to a flawed global financial order in which the incentives to take on risk are incredibly out of step with the dangers those risks pose. He traces the deepening fault lines in a world overly dependent on the indebted American consumer to power global economic growth and stave off global downturns. He exposes a system where America's growing inequality and thin social safety net create tremendous political pressure to encourage easy credit and keep job creation robust, no matter what the consequences to the economy's long-term health; and where the U.S. financial sector, with its skewed incentives, is the critical but unstable link between an overstimulated America and an underconsuming world.

In Fault Lines, Rajan demonstrates how unequal access to education and health care in the United States puts us all in deeper financial peril, even as the economic choices of countries like Germany, Japan, and China place an undue burden on America to get its policies right. He outlines the hard choices we need to make to ensure a more stable world economy and restore lasting prosperity.

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Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything (P.S.)

Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything (P.S.) Review

This is an informative and entertaining attack on the conventional wisdom -- which is less concerned with the truth than with reinforcing popular political agendas. For the authors, one can only believe in the numbers, and they delight in demonstrating the counterintuitive through statistical analysis.

The most interesting insight is the thesis that the drop in crime rate in the 1990s is causally related to 37 million legal abortions occurring after Roe v. Wade: unwanted babies prone to crime who would have come of age in the 1990s were thereby eliminated. Such an argument is a nonstarter in a politically charged environment. But the authors do a great job of explaining it statistically. Also interesting is the use of statistics to catch cheaters -- teachers who want to improve school scores, realtors who sell out their clients to get a quick commission, assorted other experts who misuse their positions. I wished there was more discussion of forensic economics, which is apparently something that Leavitt does on a consulting basis. On the other hand, Levitt does analyze the drug dealer business and demonstrates that it is an enormous pyramid scheme, with those at the bottom being paid less than minimum wage.

There is an irritating tone of self promotion to the book -- as we are repeatedly told how great Levitt is. It reminds me of the what Catfish Hunter said when it was revealed that a new "Reggie" candy bar would be marketed to celebrate Reggie Jackson's arrival in New York. Hunter said: "The Reggie bar is the only candy bar which, when you open it up, tells you how good it is." The book would have benefitted from challenging the reader more, and indulging in a little less self promotion.

Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything (P.S.) Feature

• ISBN13: 9780060731335
• Condition: New
• Notes: BUY WITH CONFIDENCE, Over one million books sold! 98% Positive feedback. Compare our books, prices and service to the competition. 100% Satisfaction Guaranteed

Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything (P.S.) Overview

Which is more dangerous, a gun or a swimming pool?

What do schoolteachers and sumo wrestlers have in common?

How much do parents really matter?

These may not sound like typical questions for an economist to ask. But Steven D. Levitt is not a typical economist. He studies the riddles of everyday life—from cheating and crime to parenting and sports—and reaches conclusions that turn conventional wisdom on its head. Freakonomics is a groundbreaking collaboration between Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner, an award-winning author and journalist. They set out to explore the inner workings of a crack gang, the truth about real estate agents, the secrets of the Ku Klux Klan, and much more. Through forceful storytelling and wry insight, they show that economics is, at root, the study of incentives—how people get what they want or need, especially when other people want or need the same thing.

Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything (P.S.) Specifications

Economics is not widely considered to be one of the sexier sciences. The annual Nobel Prize winner in that field never receives as much publicity as his or her compatriots in peace, literature, or physics. But if such slights are based on the notion that economics is dull, or that economists are concerned only with finance itself, Steven D. Levitt will change some minds. In Freakonomics (written with Stephen J. Dubner), Levitt argues that many apparent mysteries of everyday life don't need to be so mysterious: they could be illuminated and made even more fascinating by asking the right questions and drawing connections. For example, Levitt traces the drop in violent crime rates to a drop in violent criminals and, digging further, to the Roe v. Wade decision that preempted the existence of some people who would be born to poverty and hardship. Elsewhere, by analyzing data gathered from inner-city Chicago drug-dealing gangs, Levitt outlines a corporate structure much like McDonald's, where the top bosses make great money while scores of underlings make something below minimum wage. And in a section that may alarm or relieve worried parents, Levitt argues that parenting methods don't really matter much and that a backyard swimming pool is much more dangerous than a gun. These enlightening chapters are separated by effusive passages from Dubner's 2003 profile of Levitt in The New York Times Magazine, which led to the book being written. In a book filled with bold logic, such back-patting veers Freakonomics, however briefly, away from what Levitt actually has to say. Although maybe there's a good economic reason for that too, and we're just not getting it yet. --John Moe

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